Market-implied probability of majority control after the 2026 midterms. Includes the VP as tiebreaker.
All 100 seats
65 not up in 2026 · 35 contested, sorted by Democratic win probability
*Independent/third-party candidate ahead of a major party
2026 races by state
Shaded by the probability of winning party; gray states have no Senate race this cycle. Hover/tap for race details and sitting rep(s).
Biggest movers
Today
State
Candidate
YesterdayPrior
Now
Change
Last 7 days
State
Candidate
7 days ago7d ago
Now
Change
Change in the leading candidate's win probability, in percentage points — ranked by size of the move relative to where it started, e.g. 49%→52% outranks 100%→95%